While this blog is primarily oriented toward a discussion of e learning, I am very interested in the intersection of learning theory, economics and my instruction of economics.
To that end, I am endeavoring to have a wide community of viewers so I have invited colleagues from a number of my learning communities to this blog to complete the one question poll to the left and to leave a comment at this site.
The poll question was prompted by my desire to see if James James Surowiecki's thesis in The Wisdom of Crowds can be easily tested. We will know the answer to these poll question within the next 15 months, so this seemed a reasonable way for me to test his argument.
Moreover, I am seriously giving consideration to the use of blog and wiki as delivery tools for the classes I teach online and to supplement my face to face instruction. Given the research available dealing with alternative assessment and the role of authenticity and constructivism in learning, I want to see how colleagues I have come to respect interact in this environment.
Thanks in advance for your vote on the poll and any comments you care to leave.
Your reply might include:
1. Your explanation/rationale for your vote on the direction of the US economy in 2008.
2. The consequence - social, cultural, political if your prediction is correct?
3. Your view of instructional technologies such as this and their efficacy in the classroom - either cyber or face to face.
4. Any other relevant issue or question you might wish to raise.
Greg
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12 comments:
The comment below is posted on behalf of a colleague who does not have a google account and does not wish to activate one.
Trying to predict what the economy is going to do is like trying to keep water in your hand. Presidents throughout history have claimed to have done things that shifted the economy (usually for the better). I would guess that whatever they and the Congress have done to affect the economy (do you realize how Presidents never give credit to the Congress and always blame things on them, and vice versa?) occasionally have some bearing, but, in all probability, those events probably have little effect at all. The affects of the actions of the Federal Reserve Chairman are probably negligible as well. The glory of this argument is that there's no way to measure it, because we can not go back to see what would have happened had not those actions taken place. Of course, keep in mind, I have little economics training. Now, can you guess how I voted?
The U.S. economy is clearly slowing down and should continue to do so in 2008. Whether it results in a formal recession is an open question, but I think the answer will be yes. The US economy has been quite robust over the last several decades, but the adverse effects of oil shocks and the subprime mortgage market implosion are extreme so I won't be surprised if it ends in recession. The most likely impact of a recession will be a loss of the Presidency this November by the party in power.
I don’t think a recession will occur this year, but then, I’m an optimist. The two most obvious reasons for a recession to occur are the price of crude oil and the reduction in residential home construction.
From the numbers I’ve run, the aggregate supply shock from crude prices is only about half as big as the shocks in 1973 and 78-81. As best I can tell, the US economy has just absorbed the higher prices rather than reacting with a recession.
The housing bust is really moving from an overheated market to a more normal one. Last year was a bad year for residential home construction, but we still started 1.35 million new homes. Since the US has about 113 million households and grows at about 1% a year, 1.35 million new homes looks to me like a fairly reasonable number. The pace of home building in 03 – 05 was clearly too fast.
Growth will be slower than in prior periods, but 2% for 2008 is my best guess.
As for the instructional value of blogs, I think they're great. I use mine (http://www.azecon.blogspot.com) to bring current economic news to my students. It shows up as an RSS feed at the bottom of the course web page in WebCT.
I'm also interested in using blogs to capture student work. One of the problems with online courses is that the student doesn't have an easy way of taking their course work with them. It tends to go poof at the end of the semester. If they produced that content in a blog, they could keep it with them and develop it into a portfolio during their academic career. As instructors, we should be facilitating this by how we handle assignements and whatnot.
Welcome to our rediculous housing loan situation...
As interest rates went down people could afford more expensive homes. The monthly payment was within reach for very expensive homes... But, as variable rates increased, the monthly payment is now beyond the owners means. If this happened when the housing market was "live" then no problem. Just sell the home, bank the equity in the next house... Well, try escaping a high interest loan by selling your house when the housing market is slow...
Houses are the biggest long term investment for most people. When that market changes - people are going to start to hold tight to their money. Less spending means potential recession.
Paul @ Waverly, IA
The good news it will take them till 2009 to use readjusted numbers to determine what actually happened in 2008...so maybe we should wait until Jan 09 to predict more accurately what will happen in 08.
Current Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, did the bulk of his scholarly work on asymmetric information during the Great Depression. The guy (unlike his predecessor who now would like to be a rock star) gets it and unlike his predecessor, doesn't want to stir an irrational exuberance pot with a toxic mix of lower interest rates. Looking back to 2002 with more accurate data we see that the economy was in no where near the sad and sorry shape (even despite 9/11) that we thought it was. So if you want to be kind to Greenspan's legacy, you can say he had bum info with which to work. I think Bernanke's style is not as much of a crowd - pleaser as his predecessor so it may be a bumpier landing. Fact remains that even with weakness in some significant sectors, this economy is amazingly productive. The big enchilada probably will be the impact of foreign divestment out of US financial markets...
I also think that the economy is so geographically and regionally different that the 'recession' fears are not even; more acute in some areas and more tamped down in others.
This post is not being economically driven or higher-order thinking. Whenever there is a prediction from experts, it many times comes true. It is kind of like -- if you wish long and hard enough, maybe it will happen. I think that is certainly a driving force to economy many times.
I believe that we are already in the recession and feeling the effects. I believe that this recession will be longer than our previous recessions, maybe 12 months. Be patient...there will be some great buys in the market.
Wow Greg, as always you are both pragmatic and theoretical in your reflections. Guess I'm starting by addressing pt 4 in yr suggested comments.
I'm not at all gifted in econ. I sold a home in late 2007 and just purchased one for 2008. It isn't because I feel like throwing money around. I saw the sale as my chance to pay off all my debts. I chose to immediately re-invest because my very specific housing needs were met by a particular property at a time I could afford to invest the energy/time to look.
So my actions imply I don't think we're yet in a recession.
My vote was I don't know because I know people around me are spending less.
As for the Instr Technology. It's great like any other tool/resource in life. It works if you work it properly. Using the technology to enhance content understanding, interest and accuracy is always good, especially for the CC (so called 2 yr institution).
Consequences of not knowing if there's a recession - I could die a slow death because I'm probably paying more for the home I purchased than what it would cost to buy it in 12-18 months.
Life just isn't that smooth/predictable. Even when we're 'ahead of the curve' we don't know what is to come, accurate predictions or not. Given the disappointing holiday sales and the New Hampshire primary results, I guess "... large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future."
Hello Greg,
I enjoyed reviewing your blog site. I can tell you have an interest in technology. Thank you for including your favorite links in your blog. I like how you placed a column down the side to access different information easier.
Thanks for the poll regarding the US economic recession. We are considering re-financing our home with our bank. Hopefully the interest rates are dropping to make a difference.
Keep us posted.
Diane/WI
I can't comment much on the economy (I'll leave that to the others) but I will share a few thoughts on instructional technologies such as blogs, podcasts and vidcasts in the classroom. Not only do these technologies enhance our teaching but they are a necessary component of classrooms these days. The student population has evolved into a technologically saavy group and to in order to reach the next generation we must incorporate blogs, podcasts and vidcasts, among others, into our courses.
Technology can enhance a course in many ways. Podcasts allow course content to be heard repeatedly outside of class and can be especially useful for foreign language courses. Vidcasts allow for otherwise dry content to be conveyed in an upbeat, creative manner. Blogs and Wikis create community and allow for in-depth discussion, collaboration and information exchange. Apart from the ways that technology can enhance courses for a student, technology can streamline course delivery for instructors as well.
Without a doubt instructional technology is changing the way we deliver our classes, both live and in cyberspace. It is imperative that instructors remain mindful of strong pedagogy as they incorporate these elments into their classes. Utilizing these technologies requires thought into how they will enhance a course, not just using them because they are cool.
Greg -
I have had tons of fun with the voki. Thanks for putting one on your blog. I have developed one that I may be using for podcasts on my classroom site. Cool stuff, Thanks.
Paul @ Waverly, IA
Hal Varian via Arnold Kling
Hal Varian on Modern Capital
Arnold Kling
He writes,
The only thing one could do with those railroad tracks was carry trains. It would have been fantastic if the miles of excess railroad tracks could have been transformed into highways to service the new growth industry coming on in the next decade: the automobile.
But today, if you have fiber you can carry voice, data, audio, video, transactions, whatever...
That's a prime capability of computers. It means you're less likely to end up with an oversupply in the classic sense, which we saw in these other historical periods. The technology boom and bust cycle isn't eliminated, but it will have less of an effect than in prior decades.
The Austrian theory of the business cycle is that businesses over-invest in capital during booms. So you build too many railroads in the 1880's, and you have a bust later.
Varian's claim is that the capital we are investing in now is more fungible, so that if you believe the Austrian model then recessions ought to be milder.
I think that in general the economy is more elastic than it used to be. Years ago, a decline in housing construction of the magnitude that we have observed this year would have already caused unemployment to rise by a couple of percentage points.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/02/hal_varian_on_m_1.html
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